Mª Helena Guimarães

Cities develop according to different patterns, undergoing population growth during some periods and decline (shrinkage) during others. Theories attempting to understand these behaviours include: 1) shrinkage is a natural process in the life cycle of a city, alternating with periods of growth, or 2) shrinkage is an extreme event that places cities into a continuous decline process with no return to population growth. We use retrospective data over a period of 130 years to study 25 Portuguese cities currently facing population decline, and show that both theories coexist in time and space. Five types of shrinking city are revealed: “Persistent Early Shrinkage” due to exodus fromthe rural periphery, “Metropolitan Shrinkage” due to the challenges of urban sprawl, “Recent Shrinkage” in de-industrialisation hotspots, “Cyclic Shrinkage” occurring in political transformation cores, and “Mild Shrinkage” due to life-style disamenity. As diversity of city population trajectories appears to be the norm in both Portugal and other Western European countries, the incorporation of this range into the management of urban transitions is recommended in order to reinforce city resilience.

The concept of base-multiplier analysis is that export activities constitute the economic base of a region, whereas the other economic activities that sell their goods and services to the local residents grow or shrink depending on the performance of the base activities. These concepts, with origins extending at least as far back as the early 1900s, have reached maturity and are widely applied. The attractiveness of an economic base model (EBM) draws in its simplicity in expressing the power of demand in regional income determination. Extensive literature has grown up around the economic base theory, however, systematic publications concerning empirical application are scarce and focus mostly on the socioeconomic dimension of the analyzed system. Such territorially oriented economic models are useful in a variety of decision making procedures; preparation of annual budgets, short-run market demand forecasting, longer-term growth strategies. The purpose of this article is to present a practical application of EBM to the geographical area of the Guadiana Estuary, on the south coast of Portugal. The interest of the EBM application in this case study includes its integration in a broader project that applies a Systems Approach Framework (SAF) towards Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). There are three pillars of sustainability considered here: social, ecological and economic, hence, the article not only describes EBM application but also how it has been use to demonstrate a chain of events resulting from the interaction between the ecological and the socioeconomic sub systems of the area. The results obtained will probably raise the usual criticism to which the economic base model has been exposed previously; however it provides unequivocal evidence that a truly interdisciplinary approach to a given territorial target can be successfully shared with end users and the research community.

A B S T R A C T Co-management has shown promising results for the sustainable use of fishery resources. The common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) pot and trap fishery in the Algarve (Portugal) holds the potential for implementation of a co-management system. To explore this potential, seven participatory workshops took place between 2014–2015, bringing together 60 participants from 10 fishing associations and 16 fisheries management and research institutions. The exercise resulted in promising outcomes with regards to the possible implementation of a co-management system for the fishery. In the present work an overview of the outcomes of the participatory workshops is given and compared with initiatives worldwide. Among the management actions identified, some have direct impacts on the octopus' life cycle, while all target the same overall objective: to regulate fishing effort. In the informal setting of the workshops, a formal request was developed: the establishment of an annual closed season in the Algarve. This request was taken into consideration by the responsible management institution.

We purpose a mixed-mode survey to sample special purpose tourists. The mode includes on-site and off-site samples of a small population of bird watchers. We explore online social networks to get in touch with the target population. We obtained convergent validity of the samples in terms of elicited preferences. The approach is useful for studies targeting small and socially cohesive populations. a b s t r a c t This paper reports findings derived from a study of birdwatchers in the Azores. The subject was bird-watchers' preferences for given management actions designed to improve the attractiveness of bird watching sites. In the absence of official statistics on this market segment, use was made of a mixed-mode survey incorporating both on-site and off-site surveys and the use of on-line social networks and communications tools. The variable willingness-to-stay more time at the site was used as a welfare measure. It has the advantage that it can be used to demonstrate the significant returns of eco-tourism to local communities. Two findings emerge. First, tourists practicing wildlife viewing and nature-based activities are less worried about infrastructures and care more about biodiversity and habitat quality, and second, the research technique appears to be successful when surveying seasonal recreation communities that are small and socially cohesive.

A Choice Modeling (CM) study was chosen to assess specific management actions related to bird-watching on the Portuguese island of Terceira in the Azores. The usual willingness-to-pay measure was replaced by the willingness-to-stay (WTS) longer on the island for bird-watching, given changes in the site attributes. Results of the valuation study were presented to stakeholders and policy-makers using an innovative method. In particular , CM results were incorporated into a modeling tool which simulated the impact of alternative policy packages. For each selected scenario, users were able to understand birders' WTS and its impact on the local economy. The tool provided a fast and clear way of communicating relevant information, resulting in a more informed and inclusive deliberative process. Furthermore, we were able to see how results were used by the final users and came to the conclusion that local managers had preconceived ideas which did not match birders' preferences. This work led to a shift regarding prior beliefs about the relevance of bird-watching activities on the local economy as well as management actions likely to promote it. The underlying participatory approach was found to be an essential feature for the success of this science and policy interaction.

Estuaries belong to the most biologically productive ecosystems of our planet, and do offer countless ecosystem services which are relying on the scenic beauty and on overall environmental quality. Their multipurpose attractiveness explains the ever evolving process of occupation by humans. In Guadiana estuary which is the terminal segment of a 730 km long river the ecosystem services are shared by Portugal and Spain. The economic development pursued by both countries in the river catchment creates rising pressures mainly on water resources. At the moment there are more than 100 dams, 1.9 million people and 300,000 hectares of irrigated areas along the basin. This paper reports the first application of Contingent Valuation Method to the assessment of public sensibility and preferences with respect to the improvement of water quality in Guadiana Estuary. The survey was carried out at both margins of the river. Data analysis includes the use of a two steps model; in the first step voting behavior is analyzed using logistic regression while in the second step, bid decision is examined using Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The results demonstrate strong public support for the improvement of water quality and identified the key determinants of this attitude. In addition, survey evidences demonstrate that the estuary is regarded as a common and share resource hence, any action plan should be guided in this integrated direction. This analysis is part of the System Approach Framework tested and developed within SPICOSA project, financed by EU's Sixth Framework Programme. Results will be integrated in a decision support system concerning different strategies related to water quality improvement in the Estuary. M.H. Guimarães () · T. Dentinho

Cities develop according to different patterns, undergoing population growth during some periods and decline (shrinkage) during others. Theories attempting to understand these behaviours include: 1) shrinkage is a natural process in the life cycle of a city, alternating with periods of growth, or 2) shrinkage is an extreme event that places cities into a continuous decline process with no return to population growth. We use retrospective data over a period of 130 years to study 25 Portuguese cities currently facing population decline, and show that both theories coexist in time and space. Five types of shrinking city are revealed: " Persistent Early Shrinkage " due to exodus from the rural periphery, " Metropolitan Shrinkage " due to the challenges of urban sprawl, " Recent Shrinkage " in de-industrialisation hotspots, " Cyclic Shrinkage " occurring in political transformation cores, and " Mild Shrinkage " due to lifestyle disamenity. As diversity of city population trajectories appears to be the norm in both Portugal and other Western European countries, the incorporation of this range into the management of urban transitions is recommended in order to reinforce city resilience.

Despite the worldwide trend of urbanisation, data reveal that some cities are growing whereas others are losing inhabitants. To assess such dynamics in Portuguese cities, demographic, employment, housing, and climate variables were analysed as possible drivers of population change for the period 1991–2011. Panel data models show that higher shares of employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors, higher maximum temperatures, and a higher proportion of middle-aged vacant houses act as pull factors attracting inhabitants, whereas a higher unemployment rate is a push factor for cities.

This article describes how a research institute went about reviewing the relationship between its members and external research partners in engaging in collaborative research. A systematization of experiences (SE) process was implemented to enable such review and draw implications for the institute's strategy regarding research into the sustainability of Mediterranean agriculture. The SE exercise included four workshops attended by selected researchers, one questionnaire survey targeting the institute's research community, and three focus group discussions with external research partners. The rate of participation by researchers decreased during the process; however, those that followed through to the end of the SE exercise found it to be useful in clarifying both individual and institutional perspectives. Further, SE was seen as a vehicle for increasing the level of understanding between researchers and their willingness to engage in collaborative actions. However, the rapid pace of today's academic world and the dominant mode of evaluating scientific performance were identified as hindering the conditions needed to allow the necessary space and time for reflection and collaborative efforts. Therefore, the results highlight the current tension between the production of scientific knowledge according to existing patterns and the development of socially meaningful research. Index Terms: systematization of experiences; science and society; collaborative research; participative reflection; reflexive research; sustainable development; agricultural knowledge system; learning and innovation network

Science and policy integration towards natural resource management is not novel; however it has not always been successful. Partially, this failure is explained by the lack of consideration of different forms of knowledge. In order to incorporate the diversity of knowledge, transdisciplinary has been proposed and, this paper tests conceptual modeling as a tool to promote it. Qualitative modeling is an intermediate step of Systems Approach Framework (SAF) that is a methodology towards the sustainability of social-ecological systems. SAF has been applied in Praia da Vitoria Bay, in the Azores to analyze the future use of wetlands. We promoted a workshop bringing together 18 stakeholders: scientists, managers, private sectors and Non-Governmental Organizations. This paper presents the procedures and discusses the observed interaction between participants, their views and, how the wetlands services were described. Results show that non-scientists found the exercise particularly challenging but with high value due to: the systemic view and, opportunity of sharing viewpoints. The wetlands were mostly described by the direct benefits. The results show that transdisciplinarity can be operationalized and that conceptual modeling is an adequate exercise to achieve it. However, interdisciplinary work and stakeholders' analysis are also necessary because the knowledge gathered is different.

This article describes how a research institute went about reviewing the relationship between its members and external research partners in engaging in collaborative research. A systematization of experiences (SE) process was implemented to enable such review and draw implications for the institute's strategy regarding research into the sustainability of Mediterranean agriculture. The SE exercise included four workshops attended by selected researchers, one questionnaire survey targeting the institute's research community, and three focus group discussions with external research partners. The rate of participation by researchers decreased during the process; however, those that followed through to the end of the SE exercise found it to be useful in clarifying both individual and institutional perspectives. Further, SE was seen as a vehicle for increasing the level of understanding between researchers and their willingness to engage in collaborative actions. However, the rapid pace of today's academic world and the dominant mode of evaluating scientific performance were identified as hindering the conditions needed to allow the necessary space and time for reflection and collaborative efforts. Therefore, the results highlight the current tension between the production of scientific knowledge according to existing patterns and the development of socially meaningful research.